Growing
Muslim population:A demographic threat By Rohini Verma
Whenever the population of religious groups in India
is discussed that leads to heated debates. If we talk about Muslim population
in India, there is official figure of 14.88% of the country's population. So,
there are about 180 million Muslims in India. Islam first came to the western
coast of India with Arab traders as early as 7th century AD. Cheraman Juma
Masjid in Kerala is thought to be the first mosque in India, built in 629 AD by
Malik lbn Dinar.
Politics of partition:
When the British rule
ended in India, it led to creation of Pakistan on religious grounds. In 1971
due to different social and political reasons, the Dominion of Pakistan was split
into the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
One of the largest population movements in recorded history took place when
India was divided in to India and Pakistan.
Officially, India has the
third largest Muslim population next to Indonesia and Pakistan. India is home
to 10% of the world's Muslim population. India has a rough estimate of 176
million Muslims, but the actual number is expected to be higher. Records show that
India has more Muslims than Pakistan. The largest concentration of about 47% of
Muslims in India, live in the three states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and
Bihar. High concentrations of Muslims are found in states of Assam, Kerala,
Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka.
As of 2015, Muslims comprise the majority of the
population in the only Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and in a Union
territory Lakshadweep. In Jammu and Kashmir there is 68.3% Muslim population. In
Lakshadweep there is 96.2% Muslim population.
High
Population Growth Rates:
Muslim population has been growing rapidly in India
with increasing figures in every census.
In 1951 Muslim Population Growth rate per Census was 9.9%.
In 1971 census, the Muslim
Population Growth rate was 11.21%.
In 1991 Census Jammu and Kashmir was not included in
the Census Data due to militant activity in the state. Even then the Muslim
Population Growth rate was 12.12%.
By the 2001 Census,
Muslims formed 13.4% of India’s population.
In 2011, the Muslim
Population Growth rate was 14.88% which was the highest so far.
This is the official figure, but the actual growth rate is more than this
figure.
Higher
total fertility rate:
Muslims in India have a much higher total fertility
rate (TFR) as compared to other religious communities in the country. The share
of Hindus in India’s population has shown the sharpest dip in a decade since
Independence and has dropped below 80%. The 2011 religion census data shows
that the share of Muslims in the population has risen 80 basis points from 13.4%
in 2001 to 14.88% with some border states showing a high increase. The number
of Muslims increased 24.4% to 17.18 crore from 13.8 crore during the period
2001-11. At 24% the growth rate of Muslim population is higher than the
national average of 18% for the decade 2001-11. During the five decades — 1951
to 2001 — their share rose from 9.8% to 13.4%.
Drop
in Hindu Population:
The share of Hindus over the previous five decades —
between 1951 and 2001 — dropped 3.65 percentage points from 84.1% to 80.45% of
the total population. India's Muslim population is more urban compared to their
Hindu counterparts, infant mortality rates among Muslims is about 12% lower
than those among Hindus.
Surveys indicate that Muslims are less willing to
adopt family planning measures and Muslim women have a larger fertility period
since they get married at a much younger age as compared to Hindu women. Muslims
are much more resistant to modern contraception and consider contraception anti
–Islamic. The rise in Muslim numbers is most noticeable in Assam, where they
were found to make up 34.2% of the population in 2011.
West Bengal, where illegal immigration from
Bangladesh has been an issue, has also seen a rise in Muslim population from
25.2% in 2001 to 27% in 2011. In Kerala, by 2% to 26.6%. In UP and Bihar,
the increase is about 1%, with the Muslim headcount at 19.3% and 16.9%
respectively. Jharkhand, Delhi and Maharashtra report similar increases, with
the 2011 figures rising to 14.5%, 12.9% and 11.5%.
A study conducted by K.C. Zacharia in Kerala in 1983
revealed that on average, the number of children born to a Muslim woman was 4.1
while a Hindu woman gave birth to only 2.9 children.
Growth
in world's Muslim population:
The world's Muslim population is expected to
increase by about 35% in the 20 years following 2011, rising from 1.6 billion
in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the
Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. Globally, the Muslim
population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim
population.
The Muslim population in India is projected to
increase from 177.3 million in 2010 to 236.2 million in 2030. The Muslim share
of India's population is expected to increase to 15.9% in 2030.
Pakistan
may surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population:
A majority of the world's Muslims about 60% will
continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20% will live in the
Middle East and North Africa.
Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the
country with the single largest Muslim population. In the United States,
for example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than
doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2
million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average
fertility among Muslims.
Why
Muslims are growing in numbers? Following are the reasons:
- - Higher fertility rates (more children
per woman)
- - Improved health and economic conditions
- - Decline in infant and child mortality
rates
- - Life expectancy is rising
- - Remarriage among Muslims is allowed
- - Avoiding contraception
According to another study, Hindus will become the
world's third largest population by 2050, while India will overtake Indonesia and
Pakistan as the country with the largest Muslim population. India will retain a
Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country
in the world.
In the backdrop of projections that India will have the
largest number of Muslims by 2050, Vishwa Hindu Parishad demanded a uniform law
to rectify the "demographic imbalance" in the country. This was a key
result of an in-depth study on “The Future of World Religions: Population
Growth Projections, 2010-2050,” by the Pew Research Center. The Pew study found
that Muslims would nearly double their numbers in Europe to more than ten per
cent by 2050 and would outnumber
Christians worldwide by 2070.
Comparison
of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh:
In Pakistan in 2001-11 Muslims had a decadal
population growth rate of about 20%. India's Muslims had the figure of 24% and
Bangladesh slightly more than 14%. If India's Muslims had witnessed Pakistan's
population growth rate of 20%, the country would have had about five-six
million fewer Muslims in 2011.
If Bangladesh had experienced the same 20%
population growth rate, it would have had seven million more Muslims. The lower
numbers of Bangladesh have a significant factor of migration to India. The point to be noted is that the growth of
the Muslim population in the border districts of West Bengal and Assam has been
the highest. Even at 20%, the growth rate of the domestic Muslim population
would be higher than for all non-Muslims.
Since the Indian partition, the Muslim population
has grown in all the three nations. Some
projections suggest that the Muslim population in India may be 18-19% of the
population.
This is the high time when ways should be explored
to encourage more Muslims to adopt family planning. Another point is that the illegal
immigration should be reduced. It is worth bearing in mind that if India
continues to do better economically than Bangladesh there will be even more
illegal immigration. At least 3Crore Bangladeshis are in Indian territories who
show that they are Hindus so that they can stay in India. Their count in Hindu
category itself enlarges the Hindus numbers in census.
The other side of the story is that there is an
alarming decrease of Hindu population in both Pakistan and Bangladesh, whereas
Muslims are growing in India. The statistics show almost
elimination of Hindu population in many districts in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The problem
is that Indian Census of 2011 is a substantial piece of fiction. It has not
represented a true and fair picture of religious affiliations in India. Census
2011 has given an overestimate of the real Hindu population and an
underestimate of the Muslim and Christian populations.
Given the significant conversion activities of
Muslim and Christian religious organisations, the chances are that a large
chunk of the SC population has probably formally been designated as Hindu to
avoid being made ineligible for reservations. India’s “secular” forces would
like all of us to believe that all Hindu fears of being gradually outnumbered
are baseless. Declaring the Hindu population to be an
overwhelmingly large number whether 80.45% in 2001 or 78.35% in 2011 may be
considered vital for vote bank politics.
Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are poorer than India,
but still have lower birth rates. In Kerala, where Muslims are not poor the
Muslim proportion has actually risen substantially in 2011 from 24.7% to 26.6%.
When overall Muslim decadal population growth exceeds the Hindu decadal growth
by almost 10%, one has to consider cultural and political ramifications.
Scheduled castes and OBCs should not be excluded
from reservation benefits because they do not declare themselves Hindu. In
fact, a lot of OBCs converts who now get reservations may also be tempted to
misdeclare their religions for fear of losing quota benefits. What Hindus can
usefully do is stop killing girl children. That way there will be more Hindu
women reaching child-bearing age.
In order to contain the population of Muslims,
vasectomy or family planning are the only solutions. If the Muslim population
continued to grow in the same way then it may lead to the formation of a new
Pakistan with in India.
Courtesy: http://www.populationmatters.org/,
http://en.wikipedia.org/,
http://www.rediff.com/,
http://indianexpress.com/, http://www.openthemagazine.com/, http://www.faqs.org/, http://www.prb.org/, http://www.thehindu.com/, http://www.firstpost.com/, http://ibnlive.in.com/, http://www.thehindu.com/, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/, http://en.reingex.com/Muslim-population-countries.asp, http://www.business-standard.com/, newobserveronline.com