Growing Muslim population:A demographic threat By Rohini Verma

Growing Muslim population:A demographic threat By Rohini Verma

Whenever the population of religious groups in India is discussed that leads to heated debates. If we talk about Muslim population in India, there is official figure of 14.88% of the country's population. So, there are about 180 million Muslims in India. Islam first came to the western coast of India with Arab traders as early as 7th century AD. Cheraman Juma Masjid in Kerala is thought to be the first mosque in India, built in 629 AD by Malik lbn Dinar.

Politics of partition:

When the British rule ended in India, it led to creation of Pakistan on religious grounds. In 1971 due to different social and political reasons, the Dominion of Pakistan was split into the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the People's Republic of Bangladesh. One of the largest population movements in recorded history took place when India was divided in to India and Pakistan.

Officially, India has the third largest Muslim population next to Indonesia and Pakistan. India is home to 10% of the world's Muslim population. India has a rough estimate of 176 million Muslims, but the actual number is expected to be higher. Records show that India has more Muslims than Pakistan. The largest concentration of about 47% of Muslims in India, live in the three states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar. High concentrations of Muslims are found in states of Assam, Kerala, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka.

As of 2015, Muslims comprise the majority of the population in the only Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and in a Union territory Lakshadweep. In Jammu and Kashmir there is 68.3% Muslim population. In Lakshadweep there is 96.2% Muslim population.

High Population Growth Rates:

Muslim population has been growing rapidly in India with increasing figures in every census.

In 1951 Muslim Population Growth rate per Census was 9.9%.

In 1971 census, the Muslim Population Growth rate was 11.21%.

In 1991 Census Jammu and Kashmir was not included in the Census Data due to militant activity in the state. Even then the Muslim Population Growth rate was 12.12%.

By the 2001 Census, Muslims formed 13.4% of India’s population.

In 2011, the Muslim Population Growth rate was 14.88% which was the highest so far. This is the official figure, but the actual growth rate is more than this figure.

Higher total fertility rate:

Muslims in India have a much higher total fertility rate (TFR) as compared to other religious communities in the country. The share of Hindus in India’s population has shown the sharpest dip in a decade since Independence and has dropped below 80%. The 2011 religion census data shows that the share of Muslims in the population has risen 80 basis points from 13.4% in 2001 to 14.88% with some border states showing a high increase. The number of Muslims increased 24.4% to 17.18 crore from 13.8 crore during the period 2001-11. At 24% the growth rate of Muslim population is higher than the national average of 18% for the decade 2001-11. During the five decades — 1951 to 2001 — their share rose from 9.8% to 13.4%.

Drop in Hindu Population:

The share of Hindus over the previous five decades — between 1951 and 2001 — dropped 3.65 percentage points from 84.1% to 80.45% of the total population. India's Muslim population is more urban compared to their Hindu counterparts, infant mortality rates among Muslims is about 12% lower than those among Hindus.

Surveys indicate that Muslims are less willing to adopt family planning measures and Muslim women have a larger fertility period since they get married at a much younger age as compared to Hindu women. Muslims are much more resistant to modern contraception and consider contraception anti –Islamic. The rise in Muslim numbers is most noticeable in Assam, where they were found to make up 34.2% of the population in 2011.

West Bengal, where illegal immigration from Bangladesh has been an issue, has also seen a rise in Muslim population from 25.2% in 2001 to 27% in 2011. In Kerala, by 2% to 26.6%. In UP and Bihar, the increase is about 1%, with the Muslim headcount at 19.3% and 16.9% respectively. Jharkhand, Delhi and Maharashtra report similar increases, with the 2011 figures rising to 14.5%, 12.9% and 11.5%.

A study conducted by K.C. Zacharia in Kerala in 1983 revealed that on average, the number of children born to a Muslim woman was 4.1 while a Hindu woman gave birth to only 2.9 children.

Growth in world's Muslim population:

The world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the 20 years following 2011, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population.

The Muslim population in India is projected to increase from 177.3 million in 2010 to 236.2 million in 2030. The Muslim share of India's population is expected to increase to 15.9% in 2030.

Pakistan may surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population:

A majority of the world's Muslims about 60% will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20% will live in the Middle East and North Africa.

Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population. In the United States, for example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims.

Why Muslims are growing in numbers? Following are the reasons:

-         - Higher fertility rates (more children per woman)

-         - Improved health and economic conditions

-        -  Decline in infant and child mortality rates

-        -  Life expectancy is rising

-         - Remarriage among Muslims is allowed

-        -  Avoiding contraception

According to another study, Hindus will become the world's third largest population by 2050, while India will overtake Indonesia and Pakistan as the country with the largest Muslim population. India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world.

In the backdrop of projections that India will have the largest number of Muslims by 2050, Vishwa Hindu Parishad demanded a uniform law to rectify the "demographic imbalance" in the country. This was a key result of an in-depth study on “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050,” by the Pew Research Center. The Pew study found that Muslims would nearly double their numbers in Europe to more than ten per cent by 2050 and would outnumber Christians worldwide by 2070.

Comparison of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh:

In Pakistan in 2001-11 Muslims had a decadal population growth rate of about 20%.  India's Muslims had the figure of 24% and Bangladesh slightly more than 14%. If India's Muslims had witnessed Pakistan's population growth rate of 20%, the country would have had about five-six million fewer Muslims in 2011.

If Bangladesh had experienced the same 20% population growth rate, it would have had seven million more Muslims. The lower numbers of Bangladesh have a significant factor of migration to India. The point to be noted is that the growth of the Muslim population in the border districts of West Bengal and Assam has been the highest. Even at 20%, the growth rate of the domestic Muslim population would be higher than for all non-Muslims.

Since the Indian partition, the Muslim population has grown in all the three nations. Some projections suggest that the Muslim population in India may be 18-19% of the population.

This is the high time when ways should be explored to encourage more Muslims to adopt family planning. Another point is that the illegal immigration should be reduced. It is worth bearing in mind that if India continues to do better economically than Bangladesh there will be even more illegal immigration. At least 3Crore Bangladeshis are in Indian territories who show that they are Hindus so that they can stay in India. Their count in Hindu category itself enlarges the Hindus numbers in census.

The other side of the story is that there is an alarming decrease of Hindu population in both Pakistan and Bangladesh, whereas Muslims are growing in India. The statistics show almost elimination of Hindu population in many districts in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

 The problem is that Indian Census of 2011 is a substantial piece of fiction. It has not represented a true and fair picture of religious affiliations in India. Census 2011 has given an overestimate of the real Hindu population and an underestimate of the Muslim and Christian populations.

Given the significant conversion activities of Muslim and Christian religious organisations, the chances are that a large chunk of the SC population has probably formally been designated as Hindu to avoid being made ineligible for reservations. India’s “secular” forces would like all of us to believe that all Hindu fears of being gradually outnumbered are baseless. Declaring the Hindu population to be an overwhelmingly large number whether 80.45% in 2001 or 78.35% in 2011 may be considered vital for vote bank politics.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are poorer than India, but still have lower birth rates. In Kerala, where Muslims are not poor the Muslim proportion has actually risen substantially in 2011 from 24.7% to 26.6%. When overall Muslim decadal population growth exceeds the Hindu decadal growth by almost 10%, one has to consider cultural and political ramifications.

Scheduled castes and OBCs should not be excluded from reservation benefits because they do not declare themselves Hindu. In fact, a lot of OBCs converts who now get reservations may also be tempted to misdeclare their religions for fear of losing quota benefits. What Hindus can usefully do is stop killing girl children. That way there will be more Hindu women reaching child-bearing age.

In order to contain the population of Muslims, vasectomy or family planning are the only solutions. If the Muslim population continued to grow in the same way then it may lead to the formation of a new Pakistan with in India.

Courtesy: http://www.populationmatters.org/, http://en.wikipedia.org/, http://www.rediff.com/, http://indianexpress.com/, http://www.openthemagazine.com/, http://www.faqs.org/, http://www.prb.org/, http://www.thehindu.com/, http://www.firstpost.com/, http://ibnlive.in.com/, http://www.thehindu.com/, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/, http://en.reingex.com/Muslim-population-countries.asp, http://www.business-standard.com/, newobserveronline.com